Archive for the ‘Between The Lines’ Category

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. - KRC Stock Recommendation  

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Q3FY08 Result Update

Key Data

CMP Rs 612

Date April 10th 2008

Sector Automobiles

Face Value Rs.10

BSE Code 500520

52 Week H/L Rs 872/ 543

Market Cap Rs 15045 Cr

Investment Rationale

M&M is the flagship company of Mahindra Group that has a significant presence in several high growth sectors. The company has two main divisions – automotive and farm equipment. It is a dominant player in the UV segment with its ‘Scorpio’ and ‘Bolero’ models – main constituents of sales in the automotive division and currently accounts for about half of India’s market for utility vehicles. M&M is also engaged in the manufacture of three wheelers and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). It has recently tied up with Renault to make the Logan car in India. The company has also invested significantly in developing its auto-components business. Mahindra & Mahindra is the only Indian company among the top three tractor manufacturers in the world. M&M is also a leader in the Indian tractor market and with the recent acquisition of Punjab Tractors controls nearly 40% of the domestic tractor market. Mahindra’s Farm Equipment Sector has recently won the Japan Quality Medal, the only tractor company worldwide to be bestowed this honour. It also holds the distinction of being the only tractor company worldwide to win the Deming Prize. Mahindra is the market leader in multi-utility vehicles in India. It made a milestone entry into the passenger car segment with Logan. The Mahindra Group’s Farm Equipment Sector has a significant presence across six continents. It is among the top five tractor brands in the world, with its own state-of-the-art plants in India, USA, China and Australia, and a capacity to produce 1,50,000 tractors a year. The Group has a network of 800 dealers world-wide. It should benefit from the recent budget which cuts excise duty and focuses on rural income. Government’s increasing thrust on agriculture and easy availability of credit would benefit M&M’s tractor sales. Mahindra & Mahindra has hired Strawberryfrog, the New York based ad agency, to help them in entering the US and Brazil markets for cars and SUVs in 2009. It should benefit from the recent budget which cuts excise duty and focuses on rural income. A better product mix and higher operating efficiencies have helped improve the margins of the company. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) plans to launch a range of low cost utility vehicles by the end of 2009. These would be priced at Rs. 4 lakhs.

Mahindra and Mahindra have introduced a three-wheeler passenger automotive Alfa worth Rs.1.35 lakh. It is the first vehicle in its section whose design was based on widespread customer feedback and incorporates a host of special features. This diesel driven vehicle would give an average of 30 km per litre on standard conditions. Mahindra & Mahindra plans to set up its own plant near Chennai. M&M is in the process of drafting the plans for the Chennai plant and by 2010, the company expects to initiate operations. M&M want to look at Tamil Nadu for the next major expansion of our automotive business. M&M announced to set up its own greenfield plant at Chakan, near Pune, with an estimated investment of Rs. 1,500 crore, to produce 300,000 vehicles. M & M has also signed a MoU with the state government for the same and decided to make Maharashtra the launch pad for their commercial vehicles. Commercial productions at Chakan are expected to start by 2010.

Key Developments

New Launches

M&M plans to launch a five-seater mass-market utility vehicle (UV) in 2009, priced between Rs. 4-5 lakh. M&M’s new innovation, mass market UV has been developed with an investment of Rs. 500-600 crore. The prototype of the model is ready and would be sent for homologation (for safety and emission clearances) by the end of 2008. Launch of Logan in collaboration with Renault and other planned launches such as new UV platform and other products in collaboration with International Trucks are set to further enrich its product mix. M&M’s Scorpio launched in Egypt, Brazil etc. M&M has set up a facility with an annual capacity of 5,000 units in Brazil to assemble the vehicles.

Financial Performance

Net Revenues increases during Q3FY08

M&M standalone net revenue increased 14.1% YoY to Rs2940. The company has improved its market share in utility vehicle during the quarter to 52.8% as compared to 48.4% during the corresponding year-ago quarter. Exports also registered strong growth of 47.8% YoY to 2889 vehicle, largely due to increase in goods carrier sales.

Valuations

At current market price of Rs612, M&M is quoting at a PER of 15.4x. On EV/Sales and on EV/ EBIDTA basis it is quoting at 1.4x and 9.3x of its TTM earnings respectively.

Click Here for In-depth Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. target price and for making informed investment decisions.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050  / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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April 10th, 2008 at 1:53 pm

Posted in Between The Lines

Patel Engineering Ltd. (PEL) - KRC Stock Recommendation  

Patel Engineering Ltd. (PEL)

Q3 FY08 Result update

Key Data

CMP Rs 560

Date April 9th 2008

Sector Infrastructure

Face Value Re.1

BSE Code 531120

52 Week H/L Rs 1070/ 316

Market Cap Rs 3341 Cr

Patel Engineering Ltd (PEL) is a leading civil construction company engaged in construction of power plants, dams, tunnels, bridges, marine works, flyovers and highways etc. PEL has also specialized in micro tunneling which is high margin business requiring sophisticated technology. Besides this the company also master in technology of RCC (Roller Compact Concrete) required for construction of dams.

Investment Rationale

Strong order book

PEL currently has a strong order-book position of Rs5500 crore (4.9x FY07 and 4.5x TTM sales) providing revenue visibility over the next 2 years. The order book is spread across 3 verticals namely Power projects (56%), Transportation (23%) and Irrigation and Water supply (21%).

Foray into different areas

PEL’s recent foray into real estate through its wholly owned subsidiary Patel Realties India Ltd (PRIL) is planning to have phase wise development of 987 acres. The company’s entire land bank is fully paid and is purchased at a nominal cost. The company has also forayed into Independent Power Producer (IPP) business model of generating power. It has signed a MOU with the Government of Gujarat to set up thermal power plant aggregating 1200 MW in four phases of 300 MW each in Bhavnagar, entailing an investment of Rs6000 crore. The electricity generated will be sold to power traders, captive consumers and state governments. The company is looking for a coal linkage outside India for the said project.

Market share of 21% in Hydro power segment

PEL is enjoying approximately 21% market share in Hydro power segment which is well poised to register robust growth over the next few years. Government of India is planning to add 20,000 and 50,000 MW in 11th and 12th five year plan. This is expected to create significant business opportunity for PEL going forward.

Use of sophisticated technology

PEL uses RCC technology for constructing dams, where 70% of cement is replaced with flyash. This method is 30% less expensive than traditional ways and hastens the process by approx 40%. It also uses Micro-tunneling for urban development which avoids troubling traffic and circumvents the need to dig up roads. PEL also uses Double Lake Tap method which quickens implementation of hydro-power project by almost a year as one need not deplete the reservoir for installing another lake tap. Therefore considering the strong order book, significant market share in high margin hydropower segment and venture into other attractive areas along with the use of modern technology, we expect PEL to post robust performance going forward.

Key Developments

Robust order book of Rs5500 crore

The company has robust order book of Rs5500 crore (4.9x FY07 and 4.5x TTM sales). Recently it entered into 50:50 joint ventures with KNR Constructions. The new Patel-KNR JV has bagged an order valued at Rs206 crore towards balance works of widening 4/6 laning and strengthening of existing 2 lane carriageway of NH-7 between Madhurai & Kanniyakumari in Tamil Nadu by NHAI.

Foray into Independent power producer (IPP) business project to set up 1200 MW thermal plant

The company has forayed into Independent Power Producer (IPP) business project. It has signed a MOU with the Government of Gujarat to set up thermal power plant of 1200 MW in four phases of 300 MW each in Bhavnagar, entailing an investment of Rs6000 crore. The electricity generated will be sold to power traders, captive consumers and state governments. The company is in advanced stage of acquiring coal mines in Indonesia and South Africa with sufficient reserves.

Floated wholly owned subsidiary, PRIL, to foray into real estate development

PEL has floated a subsidiary, PRIL to enter into margin l ucrative real estate business. The company has a land bank of 987 acres which is fully paid and purchased at a nominal cost. PEL has transferred development rights to its subsidiary and plans to add more land in its kitty. The company plans to develop an integrated township in Bangalore and commercial property in Mumbai and Hyderabad.

Land bank details

Place Area (acres)

Hyderabad 650

Chennai 190

Bangalore 100

Panvel 20

Mumbai 6.5

Mysore 20

Total 986.5

Financial Performance

Top-line increased 33.3% y-o-y in Q3 FY08.

The company reported 33.3 percent and 25.6 percent growth in net sales and EBDITA to Rs379 crore and Rs59.2 crore respectively in Q3 FY08. The EBDITA margin declined 90 bps yo-y to 15.6 percent due to higher operating expenses; however net profit margin improved 34 bps to 10.85 percent due to lower interest and depreciation expenses.

Valuations

At current market price of Rs559.6 the stock is quoting at PER 26.15x, On EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA it is available at 3.04x and 20.17x of TTM December 07 earning respectively.

Click Here for In-depth Patel Engineering Ltd. (PEL) research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations, Patel Engineering Ltd. (PEL)  target price and for making informed investment decisions.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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Written by K R Choksey

April 10th, 2008 at 12:24 am

Posted in Between The Lines

ZEE Entertainment Ltd. - KRC Stock Recommendation  

ZEE Entertainment Ltd. - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations

Q3 FY08 Result Update

Key Data

CMP

Rs 240

Date

April 8th 2008

Sector

Media & Entertainment

Face Value

Rs.1

BSE Code

505537

52 Week H/L

Rs 363/ 169

Market Cap

Rs 10423 Cr

 

Investment Rationale

Diversified Bouquet of channels

Zee Entertainment has presence across all genres. Its flagship channel Zee TV is the No 2 channel across all genres and is a strong contender for the No 1 spot currently occupied by Star TV. Zee Cinema is the leader in the movie genre and No 3 channel across all genres after Star TV and Zee TV. Zee Café targeting the English speaking youth is the market leader among English GEC. Zee Sports coupled with Ten Sports commands one-third of the market share.

Strong Challenger to the No 1 position

Zee Entertainments flagship channel Zee TV has closed in significantly on Star TV in the past year. Its GRP (General Rating Points) have grown from 181 GRPs in April 06 to 282 GRPs in Dec 07. GRP growth is mainly due to increase in time spent due to high content stickiness. In the case of Prime Time Performance the gap between Zee TV and the leader has decreased even more dramatically with Zee TV having 184 GRPs compared to 187 of Star TV as on December 15 2007.

Subscription Revenues to grow

The CAS/DTH market in India, though nascent, offers good long-term potential, given its advantages over cable and will also offer indirect benefits to all broadcasters. Increasing implementation of CAS and DTH would lead to better addressability in terms of subscriber declaration. Prior to the implementation, due to the under declaration of subscribers by the Local Cable Operators, out of the total consumer spend on cable television only 10% trickled down to the Broadcasters compared to 40% in USA and 37% in UK. Since most of Zee’s channels are pay it would benefit considerably due to growing penetration of CAS/DTH.

Growing Advertisement Revenues

Most of its Zee’s advertisement contracts with the advertisers are signed on a quarterly basis, which gives the company the advantage to hike its ad rates on strong viewer ship data. Of late, viewer ship of the channel has been continuously improving. In Q308 Zee had 24 shows in the top 50 in the GEC segment. Moreover, Zee Cinema is the market leader in the movie genre and Zee Café is the leader in the English GEC segment. In the quarter ended December 2007 the company recorded an advertisement growth of 25.3% over the prior quarter and the company expects the advertisement revenue to grow at 32% in FY08.

Key Developments

Zee Entertainment Ltd in December 2007 launched a new channel Zee Next targeting the age group between 20-32 years in the Hindi speaking markets. The main idea of the channel is to capitalize on the existing gap in GEC wherein programming genres viz. thriller, comedy and action are absent or minimal. Hence, Zee next will complement the flagship channel through differentiated content.

Financial Performance

Consolidated net sales of the company grew 24 percent from Rs210.5 crore to Rs263.8 crore in Q3 FY08. Net Advertising revenue grew 25 percent y-o-y due to superior ratings for its flagship channel Zee TV. Net Sales of the company grew to Rs113.5 crore, an increase of 18.4 percent y-o-y compared to the corresponding quarter last year.

Valuations

Based on its TTM (December 07) earnings, Zee Entertainment Ltd is quoting at P/E multiple of 37.9x at CMP of Rs240. M Cap/ Sales stands at Rs11.1

Click Here For In-depth ZEE Entertainment Ltd. Ltd research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations, ZEE Entertainment Ltd. target price and for making informed investment decisions.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

 

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April 8th, 2008 at 1:01 pm

Posted in Between The Lines

Voltamp Transformers Ltd  

Voltamp Transformers Ltd - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations

(Initiating Coverage)

Key Data

CMP Rs 1160.23

Date April 4th 2008

Sector Transformer

Face Value Rs.10

BSE Code 532957

52 Week H/L Rs 1940/ 605

Market Cap Rs 1174 Cr

Investment Rationale

Voltamp Transformers Ltd (VTL), is a Vadodara based company established in 1963 by Mr.Lalitkumar H. Patel (Chairman). VTL is a leading company of India who design & manufacture a complete range of Transformers. VTL operates mainly into three segments: Oil filled Power Transformers up to 50MVA, 132KV ratings, Oil filled Distribution Transformers up to 5MVA, 33KV range and Dry Type Transformers (Vacuum resin impregnated type and Cast resin type). The power and distribution transformers combined constituted 73% of revenues while dry type transformers constituted for the remaining 27% of revenues during F07.

Key Developments

Strong balance sheet

Voltamp virtually a debt free company, with a small debt of Rs 0.89 crs. Current debt equity ratio of the company is 0.01:1.

Brownfield Expansion

Recently, the company has enhanced their installed capacity from 7200MVA to ~9000MVA with capex of Rs 15crs (which was sourced from internal accruals). The commercial production of expanded capacity has started in December 2007.

Distinct Business Model

Voltamp has a different business model to the industry. The company earns ~95% of the revenues from EPC contractors & industrial consumers and rest from SEB’s. The company derives as high as 65% (FY07) of its revenues from industries while 30% comes from EPC contractors like L&T, ABB, and Siemens. While, the industry earns ~80% to 85% revenues from SEB’s and rest from industries.

Highest ever opening order backlog

Over the past few years, the company has done sales in the range of 2-4x its opening order backlog. As on Jan 08 the order backlog stood ~Rs 400crs providing great visibility for the ongoing year.

Diverse Product profile:

Voltamp has diverse product profile manufacturing oil and dry type transformers. The company enjoys the market leader position in dry type transformers with ~40% market share.

Financial Analysis

VTL net profit rose 118.10% to Rs 22.73 crore in the Q3FY08 as against Rs 10.42 crore during Q3FY07. While, sales of the company rose 25.40% to Rs 169.38 crore in Q3FY08 as against Rs 135.03 crore during Q3FY07.

Valuations

At current market price of Rs 1160, the stock is trading at 16.29x on earnings of Rs 71.21 (TTM Basis). On back of huge power sector growth and enhanced capacities, we put a “Buy” rating on the stock at current levels.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone:91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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April 7th, 2008 at 11:14 pm

Posted in Between The Lines

Wockhardt Ltd - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations  

WOCKHARDT

Result Update

Key Data

 

CMP

Rs 268

Date

April 4th 2008

Sector

Pharmaceuticals

Face Value

Rs.5

BSE Code

532300

52 Week H/L

Rs 450/ 323

Market Cap

Rs 2933 Cr

Investment Rationale

Wockhardt is a global, pharmaceutical and biotechnology company that has grown by leveraging two powerful trends impacting the world of medicine - globalization and biotechnology. The company has posted strong quarterly results with its revenue increasing by 69 percent to Rs738.1crore YoY .The Indian business of the company continues to rise up the ladder and delivered a growth of 8% during the quarter which saw the launch of 9 products. The operating margin for the quarter has shown a significant increase of 230 basis points to 24.5 percent YoY basis. The expenditure on R&D has reduced by 30.7percent to Rs11.7 crore compared to the same quarter last year.

Key Developments

Growth through inorganic route

The company has recently acquired Morton Grove pharmaceuticals Inc. a leading liquid generic and speciality dermatology company in the US having sales revenue of US $52 mn. This strategic acquisition provides Wockhardt entry into the US generic market with a portfolio of 31 products, of which 13 are the market leaders. This acquisition will boost the wockhardt’s US revenue by providing a complete range of dosage forms right from tablets, capsules, liquids to injectibles. Wockhardt now has a strong position in the liquid market in USA and UK.

Wockhardt signs in-licensing agreement with Italian firm to strengthen Pain relief portfolio

Pharmaceutical and biotechnology major Wockhardt Limited has signed an in-licensing agreement with the Italy-based Gnosis SpA to market SAMe (S-adenosyl methionine), a process patented product for osteoarthritis. This will be marketed under the brand name SAMMY. The Indian market is worth Rs 270 crores for this product.

Financials

Strategic acquisition led to the robust performance

Powered by acquisitions and European business, the pharmaceutical and biotech major Wockhardt posted a 23 per cent jump in net profit to Rs 106.9 crore in the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2007, as against Rs 87 crore in the quarter ended December 31, 2006. The total income increased by 43.36 per cent to Rs 765.7 crore from Rs 534.1 crore in the previous year’s quarter. For the year ended December 31 2007, the company reported a net profit of Rs 385.8 crore, 60 per cent more than a year ago.

Valuations

Wockhardt is quoting at PER of 13.7x on consolidated TTM earnings On EV to Sales and EV to EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 2.5x and 11.3x respectively.

Industry Scenario

The Indian pharmaceutical industry is a US$ 10bn industry registering a growth of 8%-9% annually. Indian pharma industry which manufactures around 8% of the worlds drugs ranks 4th in terms of Volume and 13th in terms of value. Post GATT, the entry of foreign multinationals has provided huge opportunities for Indian manufacturers and exporters. According to the Mckinsey report, Indian pharmaceutical industry will triple to US$20 billion by 2015 and move into the world’s top-10 pharmaceuticals markets. This implies a compounded annual growth rate of 12.3 per cent. This growth will be materially higher than the annual growth rate of 9 per cent witnessed during 2000 to 2005.The absolute growth of US$14 billion will be next to the growth potential of the US and China, and in the same league as the growth in Japan, Canada and the UK. Generics will continue to dominate, while patent-protected products are likely to constitute 10 per cent of the market within this timeframe.

The product patent laws coming into effect in India post 2005 have bolstered the confidence of foreign companies and provided opportunities for Indian industry to develop and launch new molecules in domestic market in joint ventures with foreign entrants. The exports figure of pharma sector in FY 2005-06 at US $4.81bn reflects Pharma “Sunrise” industry of Indian economy also such strong growth in exports would be facilitated by the fact that several branded products are slated to lose patent protection in developed markets in the coming years. e.g. in the US drugs worth $40 billion and in Europe drugs worth $25 billion will go off patent by 2007-08, which will provide adequate growth opportunities for Indian drugs manufacturers operating in the generic drug markets. The industry is graduating from a total generics market to building a segment of novel, patented products developed indigenously, providing huge potential for further growth.

The Indian pharmaceutical market has potential for tremendous growth with a burgeoning middle-class of around 300-400 million people that have higher healthcare expectations. In the long run, affordability and awareness are expected to increase and Indians are expected to be able to afford the best medicines.

Therefore, overall, the outlook on the Indian pharmaceutical sector is positive.

Company Background

Wockhardt Limited is global research and technology oriented pharma major based out of India that’s has an active multidisciplinary R7D programme. It has been one of the frontrunners in biotechnology research in the country. The company was also among the first to sense to opportunities for generic pharmaceuticals in Europe. Wockhardt Limited has presence in inflammation and pain, anti-infective, cough syrups, corticosteroids and medical nutrition.

Wockhardt today, is distinguished by a strong and growing presence in the world’s leading markets, with more than 65% of its revenue coming from Europe and the United States. Wockhardt’s market presence covers formulations, biopharmaceuticals, nutrition products, vaccines and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).

The Company has its headquarters in India, and has

Ø 14 manufacturing plants in India, UK, Ireland and France

Ø Subsidiaries in US, UK, Ireland and France

Ø Marketing offices in Africa, Russia, Central and South East Asia.

Wockhardt has a strong track record in acquisition management, with five successful acquisitions in the European market. These acquisitions have strengthened Wockhardt’s position in the high-potential markets of Europe, and have expanded the global reach of the organization.

 

Wockhardt’s manufacturing facilities in India, UK, Ireland and France have the approval of major regulatory bodies, including US FDA and UK’s MHRA, with capabilities for both Finished Dosage Formulations and APIs. The output includes

Ø Steriles (Injectables)

Ø Biopharmaceuticals

Ø Orals (Tablets & Liquids)

Ø Topicals (Creams & Ointments)

Developments and Impact

Growth through inorganic route

The company has recently acquired Morton Grove pharmaceuticals Inc. a leading liquid generic and speciality dermatology company in the US having sales revenue of US $52 mn. This strategic acquisition provides Wockhardt entry into the US generic market with a portfolio of 31 products, of which 13 are the market leaders. This acquisition will boost the Wockhardt’s US revenue by providing a complete range of dosage forms right from tablets, capsules, liquids to injectibles. Wockhardt now has a strong position in the liquid market in USA and UK.

Wockhardt signs in-licensing agreement with Italian firm to strengthen Pain relief portfolio

Pharmaceutical and biotechnology major Wockhardt Limited has signed an in-licensing agreement with the Italy-based Gnosis SpA to market SAMe (S-adenosyl methionine), a process patented product for osteoarthritis. This will be marketed under the brand name SAMMY. The Indian market is worth Rs 270 crores for this product.

Wockhardt to market innovative Zindaclin cream

Wockhardt Limited has signed an in-licensing agreement with Crawford Healthcare, UK to market Zindaclin, a patented ‘Once-a-day’ topical application for Acne. Zindaclin is the first ‘Once-a-day’ acne antibiotic to be launched in India. This licensing deal follows the launch of Vitix & Viticolor, patented products from LSI & Crawford of UK respectively, for the treatment of Vitiligo in the Indian market. The Indian market is worth Rs 1680 million for this product.

Wockhardt gets US FDA nod to enter the US$ 2.6 billion Norvasc market

Wockhardt is all set to launch Amlodipine tablets in the US market. The tablets to be marketed are in strengths of 2.5mg, 5mg and 10mg Amlodipine besylate, which is used for treating hypertension and other related cardiac ailments. Amlodipine is the generic name for the brand Norvasc, sold in the US by Pfizer Inc. Wockhardt is gaining a very strong position in several other cardiovascular products, like Enalapril and Captopril. With Amlodipine, the company is expecting to reinforce its robust cardiovascular portfolio. As per IMS, the US market for Amlodipine tablets is about $2.6 billion equivalent to 1.7 billion tablets.

Financials

 

(Rs. Crore)

 

 

Particulars

Quarter Ended

Year Ended

Q4 FY07

Q4 FY06

% Change

FY07

FY06

% Change

Gross Sales

762.0

526.4

44.8%

2653.2

1728.6

53.5%

Excise Duty

0.0

0.0

-

0.0

0.0

-

Net Sales

762.0

526.4

44.8%

2653.2

1728.6

53.5%

Total Expenditure

571.9

404.3

41.5%

2014.1

1350.8

49.1%

EBIDTA

190.1

122.1

55.7%

639.1

377.8

69.2%

Other Income

3.7

7.8

-52.6%

11.0

19.0

-42.1%

Depreciation

23.6

21.1

11.8%

78.5

62.9

24.8%

EBIT

170.2

108.8

56.4%

571.6

333.9

71.2%

Interest

49.2

11.5

-

97.4

2.7

3507.4%

PBT

121.0

97.3

24.4%

474.2

331.2

43.2%

Tax

15.5

4.6

237.0%

91.7

23.6

288.6%

Deferred Tax

0.0

4.4

-100.0%

0.0

26.0

-100.0%

FBT

0.0

1.1

-100.0%

0.0

3.3

-100.0%

Reported Profit After Tax

105.5

87.2

21.0%

382.5

278.3

37.4%

EPS (Unit Curr.)

9.6

8.0

21.0%

35.0

25.5

36.9%

Equity

54.7

54.7

-

54.7

54.5

0.4%

EBIDTM(%)

24.9%

23.2%

7.6%

24%

22%

10.2%

EBITM(%)

22.3%

20.7%

8.1%

22%

19%

11.5%

PATM(%)

13.8%

16.6%

-16.4%

14%

16%

-10.5%

Financial Analysis

Strategic acquisitions to improve the performance

Powered by acquisitions and European business, the pharmaceutical and biotech major Wockhardt posted a 23 per cent jump in net profit to Rs 106.9 crore in the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2007, as against Rs 87 crore in the quarter ended December 31, 2006. The total income increased by 43.36 per cent to Rs 765.7 crore from Rs 534.1 crore in the previous year’s quarter. For the year ended December 31 2007, the company reported a net profit of Rs 385.8 crore, 60 per cent more than a year ago. Total income rose by 52.4 per cent from Rs 1,748 crore in 2006 to Rs 2,664.2 crore. The operating margins improved by 170 basis points to 24.9 per cent in the December quarter and 100 basis points to 24.1 per cent for the year 2007. ‘The value creation in newly acquired Pinewood and Negma in Europe, contributed to the growth in profits.

Valuations

Wockhardt is quoting at PER of 13.7x on consolidated TTM earnings On EV to Sales and EV to EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 2.5x and 11.3x respectively.

 

Risk

Ø Currency appreciation may lead the margins to shrink

Ø Increase in the price of Raw Materials thereby increasing the cost

Growth

Ø The strategic acquisition of Morton Grove will provide the company entry into the US generic market

Ø Increased focus in therapeutic areas and establishing base in new and niche therapy areas through strategic in-licensing

  •  
  • Have largest marketing network and still working to increase it to the highest
  • True Value business model generating 12-15 percent of Volume and expected to do well as well in future.
  • Maruti has new production management system, to increase productivity.
  • Competitive pricing holds the key for the success of new products.
  • Exports of variant products doing well and still expected to increase the presence in the International Market.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone:91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

 

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Written by K R Choksey

April 7th, 2008 at 12:33 am

Posted in Between The Lines

Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd  

Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd (Omnitech) - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations

Key Data 

CMP

Rs 134.30

 Date

 April 3rd 2008

 Sector

Computers - Software - Medium / Small

 Face Value

Rs.10  

 BSE Code

532526

 52 Week H/L

Rs 247.20 / 96.00

 Market Cap

Rs 176.47 Cr

 

Investment Rationale 

Strong order book and pipeline contracts– The company’s order book position stood at Rs. 78 Cr. by the end of 3QFY08. The company is expecting to execute about 75% of its order book (amounting to about Rs. 58 Cr.) in the next 12 months. It has also signed a 3 year contract, worth US$ 4.5 million (Rs. 18 Cr.) with one of the largest private sector insurance company.  

Remote infrastructure management, a highly scalable business – Infrastructure management is very scalable and enjoys high margins. The current market size of RIM services in India is estimated to be $3.2-3.6 bn. India is strongly positioned to capture $13-15 bn by 2013 (55% of global RIM market), leading to creation of 3.25 lakh to 3.75 lakh jobs. This would translate into expanding margins going forward and would depend on the pace at which the company is able to ramp up customers.   

Omnitech (OIL) eyeing infrastructure management companies for acquisition - OIL is looking to grow inorganically by way of acquisition in the area of infrastructure management space. The company’s management had indicated that they have shortlisted 2 companies for acquisition with the help of an M&A agency in New York.  

Total manpower has increased to 725 in Dec 07 quarter - To cater to new business ventures and avenues, OIL has overall added 80 people in Q3FY08 taking the total manpower to 725, heading towards its target of 850 by the end of March’08. This includes 562 technical professionals (vs. 493 in Q2FY08) and 163 support employees (vs. 152 in Q2FY08).The company management expects to surpass this number at the end of the last quarter. 

Well integrated services portfolio - Omnitech InfoSolutions has a very well integrated services portfolio, specialized towards Managed Services, Software Development and Software Testing. The wide array of service capabilities helps the company cross-sell its services to its existing clients. Thus, the company has been successful in getting recurring business from its clientele - about 65% of the company’s business is generated from existing clients. 

Strong customer base - Omnitech’s clientele includes some of the big names in the industry verticals it serves. These names include HDFC Standard Life Insurance, Kotak Mutual Fund and Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance in the BFSI sector; and Siyaram’s and HCC in the manufacturing; Maharashtra State Transport (ST)  and Jet Airways in the Transportation sector. Outside India, the company’s customer base spans across US, Canada, UK, Middle East, Japan and Belgium. The company further plans to increase its share from the international business, which will reduce its exposure any particular geography. The company’s top 10 customers include largest taxation company in the US and a Canadian telecommunication company. Additionally, the company’s top 10 customers constitute about 60% of the company’s business. Thus, it has low exposure to any single client.  

Financial Performance:

Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd (OIL) ended the third quarter with a 33.6% QoQ and 83.9% YoY increase in revenues to Rs 374.6 mn, on the back of its strong focus on the service industry. 76% of the revenues came from India where as 24% were international revenues out of which US contributed 8%. The company has surpassed its own revenue targets and sees a very strong growth in domestic as well as the international market areas. 

Other income has increased by 464.7% from Rs 1.2 mn in Q2FY08 to Rs 6.6 mn in Q3FY08 as a result of the interest accrued coming in from the company’s investment in liquid funds. 

For Q3FY08, EBITDA stood at Rs 102 mn which was up 34.5% sequentially and 116% on YoY basis. EBITDA margins for the quarter increased by 20 bps QoQ at 27.2%, compared to 27% in Q2FY08 and 23.2% in Q2FY07. 

Key Developments

Omnitech is in the final stages of acquiring a business in Bangalore, while it has also short listed two companies in the US which provide IMS and PMS services. It has provided a non-binding term sheet to one of the target companies in the US which it expects to acquire in the near future. Given the economic turmoil in the US, the company is presently evaluating the feasibility of these acquisitions. The acquisitions are expected to contribute Rs50 crores to FY09 revenues. 

Valuations

At the CMP of Rs 134.3, Omnitech is quoting at a PER of 8.47. On EV/Sales and on EV/ EBIDTA basis it is quoting at 2.39x and 8.47x respectively based on consolidated twelve months earnings ending as on Dec’07.

Click Here For In-depth Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations, Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd Ltd target price and for making informed investment decisions.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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April 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 pm

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IndusInd Bank Ltd - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations  

Key Data

 

 

IndusInd Bank Ltd

 

CMP

Rs 77

Date

April 2nd, 2008

Sector

Banking

Face Value

Rs.10

BSE Code

532648

52 Week H/L

Rs 136 / 38

Market Cap

Rs 2464 Cr

 

 

Investment Rationale

During the quarter, the bank has witness net profit growth of 17.9 percent to Rs25 crore driven strong growth in NII. For the first nine months of the current fiscal, net profit grew by 29.4 percent to Rs 60.6 crore.During the quarter, advances of the bank grew by 15 percent to Rs12934 crore and deposits by 23 percent to Rs19570 crore. Margins improved on sequential basis by 17 bps to 1.74 percent in Q3FY08 on the back of upward repricing of loans. Asset quality disappointed marginally, Gross NPA increased from Rs367 crore in the Q3FY07 to Rs411 crore in Q3FY08 and Net NPAs increased from Rs288 crore to Rs313 crore for the same period. There are many positive changes happening in the bank, recently Mr.Ramesh Sobti, has been appointed as MD & CEO of the company who was earlier working with ABN Amro Bank. We expect with the change in the management, performance of the bank will improve in the coming quarters. Also, marketing company having 600 outlets, which was earlier subsidiary of Ashok Leyland Finance is now the subsidiary of the bank, has got the RBI approval to distribute entire range of retail banking products. This will enable the bank to increase its business and most importantly increase CASA deposits and its margins too. We reiterate BUY rating on the stock.

Key Developments: Margins improved

Margins of the bank improved to 1.74 percent in Q3FY08 from 1.12 percent in the first quarter of this yr and 1.57 percent in the second quarter. Margins of the bank are lower as compare to the industry since the bank has lower branch network and therefore lower CASA deposits, therefore bank has to resort to high cost deposits which is affecting its margins. Marginal improvement in the margins was due to repricing of loans; yield on advances improved by 203 bps to 12.01 percent (yoy). At the same time, cost of deposit of the bank also increased by 94 bps to 7.77 percent.

Financial Performance

Net profit of the bank grew by 17.9 percent

In Q3FY08, the bank witness net profit growth of 17.9 percent to Rs25 crore driven by decent business growth, margin improvement and slower growth in provisions. For the first nine months of the current fiscal, net profit grew by 29.4 percent to Rs60.6 crore.

Valuations

At CMP of Rs77, the bank is trading at 29.3 TTM Dec’07 earnings and 2.2x Dec’07 book value. There are many positive changes happening in the bank, recently Mr.Ramesh Sobti, has been appointed as MD & CEO of the company who was earlier working with ABN Amro Bank. We expect with the change in the management, performance of the bank will improve in the coming quarters. Also, marketing company having 600 outlets, which was earlier subsidiary of Ashok Leyland Finance is now the subsidiary of the bank, has got the RBI approval to distribute entire range of retail banking products. This will enable the bank to increase its business and most importantly increase CASA deposits and its margins too. We reiterate BUY rating on the stock.

For In-depth IndusInd Bank Ltd. research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations, IndusInd Bank Ltd target price and for making informed investment decisions Click Here.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

 

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April 2nd, 2008 at 1:31 pm

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Bharat Forge Ltd. KR Choksey Stock Recommendations  

Bharat Forge Ltd.

Q3FY08 Result Update

Key Data

CMP Rs 268

Date April 1st 2008

Sector Auto Ancillary

Face Value Rs.2

BSE Code 500493

52 Week H/L Rs 389/ 245

Market Cap Rs 5977 Cr

Investment Rationale

Bharat Forge Ltd., the flagship company of the US $ 2.1 billion Kalyani Group, is a leading global ‘Full Service Supplier’ of forged and machined - engine & chassis components. It is the largest exporter of auto components from India and leading chassis component manufacturer in the world. With manufacturing facilities spread over 10 locations and 6countries – three in India, three in Germany, one in Sweden, one in Scotland, one in North America and one in China, the company manufacturers a wide range of safety and critical components for passenger cars, commercial vehicles and diesel engines. The company also manufactures specialized components for the railway, construction equipment, oil & gas and other industries. It is capable of producing large volume parts in both steel and aluminum.

The company is currently in a phase of de-risking its current line of business and expanding forging capabilities to new non-automotive sectors such as oil and gas, railways, aerospace, and defense. Margins for BFL are likely to start improving, given the commencement of its higher margin non-auto business, expected bounce back of exports to the US, and better sequential performance of its subsidiaries. The company has also signed an MOU with National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) for investing in a new joint venture to set up a unit for manufacturing castings and forgings for power plants with an investment of Rs. 3,000 crore. This is a 51:49 JV, investments and execution timelines for which are yet to be decided. Production at this facility is likely to begin in ~18 months from start of construction. NTPC signed the agreement for joint participation in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) space. BFL’s joint venture (JV) in China reported positive growth in revenues on the back of good traction seen in the domestic industry there. China is expected to introduce new emission norms next year and BFL stands to benefit from the same given that it is already supplying components for new generation of engines. The BFL management has indicated that the JV will break even in FY2009, with ramp up in capacity utilisation and profits expected only in FY2009.

Business Outlook

India

The Domestic market after witnessing YOY drop in the first two quarters of FY08 has shown signs of initial recovery in Q3 and industry experts expect it to gain momentum in the coming quarters. Being a development partner for the Domestic OEMs, BFL has good visibility into customer demand and expects to see an increase in revenue & market share once the new programs come online.

USA

The US M&HCV production numbers were expected to be weak on the back of new emission norms which came into effect from Jan 1st 2007 resulting in a significant pre-buy in the Oct- Dec period of 2006. The drop in production in the US CV market due to pre-buy was estimated to be in the range of 24% but the actual drop witnessed was over 40%. This has resulted in lower production and slower ramp-up of BFL’s new HDEP programmes. The recovery of the markets were expected to begin in the last quarter of CY 2007 but has been further delayed by at least 2 more quarters due to the economic slowdown. Based on the feedback received from our customers, we expect the markets to revive in second half of 2008. Going forward, with the expected recovery of the US CV market & new businesses being ramped up in the Non Auto space, BFL is poised for significant growth in the coming quarters.

Europe

European automotive industry has been growing at a steady pace and we expect it to grow at similar rate in the coming year also. The Commercial Vehicle space is witnessing positive growth and the same is expected to continue for the year ahead also. BFL is well poised to take advantage of this growth going forward.

Key Developments

Non-Automotive Sectors to be the next growth driver

The company is currently in a phase of de-risking its current line of business and expanding forging capabilities to new non-automotive sectors such as oil and gas, railways, aerospace, and defense. Margins for BFL are likely to start improving, given the commencement of its higher margin non-auto business, expected bounce back of exports to the US, and better sequential performance of its subsidiaries.

Financial Performance

Revenue up 17%

Sales of Bharat Forge were up by 17% for Q3FY08 on YoY basis and Net Profit was down by 8% due to 37% rise in interest cost and 40% rise in depreciation.

Valuations

At current market price of Rs268.45, Bharat Forge is quoting at a PER of 23.4x. On EV/Sales and on EV/ EBIDTA basis it is quoting at 3.1x and 10.8x of its TTM earnings respectively.

For In-depth Bharat Forge Ltd. research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations,  Bharat Forge Ltd. target price and for making informed investment decisions Click Here.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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April 1st, 2008 at 1:49 pm

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Aegis Logistics Ltd KR Choksey Stock Recommendations  

Aegis Logistics Ltd

Q3FY08 Update

Key Data

CMP Rs 202.55

Date March 31st 2008

Sector Gas Logistics

Face Value Rs.10

BSE Code 500003

52 Week H/L Rs 404 / 114

Market Cap Rs 332 Cr

Investment Rationale

Given the growing domestic consumption of petroleum and gas in the recent years, Aegis Logistics (ALL), the oil supply chain management company is well placed to grab theincreasing opportunities in this sector. ALL mainly concentrates on port handling of liquid petroleum/chemicals and gas storage and distribution. With the acquired Hindustan Aegis LPG, the company will expand its gas storage capacity at various sites which will be further used for auto gas retailing business. With the acquisition of Sealord Containers Ltd., Mumbai and the commencement of Kochi facility by March 2008, the liquid logistics capacity will increase by 75 percent to 288,000 KL. Moreover, ALL is also setting up a third terminal in Mumbai (56,000 KL) which is slated to commence operations by FY10. ALL has also acquired land in Haldia and Mangalore for setting up terminals in the near future and plans to extend its presence to Chennai and Kandla. The gas trading segment of ALL involves import and distribution of LPG from Saudi Arabia. Given the favourable cost economics of autogas over petrol and the increasing new entrants of LPG variants of cars in the market, the company is all set to scale up the autogas stations from the current 22 to 100 in the next two years. Presently, the company is focusing on Tier-II cities. ALL acquired Hindustan Aegis LPG (HAL) and issued 3.6 million new shares of Aegis to the shareholders of HAL (swap ratio – 1:3). HAL has two gas refrigerated tanks of 20,000 MT each of which one is currently operated by ALL. The strategy behind the acquisition is to increase the ALL’s gas capacity by 250,000 MT.

Key Developments

Aegis plans 70 LPG outlets in AP

Aegis Logistics is planning to set up 70 outlets of Auto Gas LPG in Andhra Pradesh. The company has chosen Keerthej Auto Gas Agency as its canvassing agent for the State. Aegis has a storage facility of 25,000 million tonnes of auto gas LPG at Moghul Trombay. The company has secured an import licence for petroleum products. The company is planning about 500 outlets across the country and of them 70 is planned in AP. The LPG would be sold at Government price.

Financial Performance

Revenue increased by 49 percent

Revenue increased by 49 percent to Rs 97 crore mainly driven by the expansion of liquid terminals at Sealord Containers and Kochi facility. Revenue from the liquid terminals rose by 66 percent to Rs 19.13 crore as against Rs 11.49 crore in the last quarter.

Valuations

At current market price of Rs 202.55, Aegis Logistics is quoting at a PER of 11x. On EV/Sales and on EV/ EBIDTA basis it is quoting at 1.26x and 9.26x of its TTM earnings respectively.

For In-depth Aegis Logistics Ltd research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations,  Aegis Logistics Ltd target price and for making informed investment decisions Click Here.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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March 31st, 2008 at 10:15 am

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Bank of Baroda - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations  

Bank of Baroda

Initiating Coverage

Key Data

CMP Rs 301.3

Date March 28th 2008

Sector Banking

Face Value Rs.10

BSE Code 531234

52 Week H/L Rs 501/193

Market Cap Rs 11013.72 Cr

Investment Rationale

Bank of Baroda, incorporated in 1908, is the fourth largest state-owned bank in India. It has a large network of over 2,800 branches, 71 overseas offices and 1,078 ATMs. 60percent of its branches are located in the rural and semi-urban regions of India. The company provides personal banking services including deposits, retail loans, credit cards, debit card, lockers and other services and also provides business banking services merchant banking services The government owns 53.8percent of the bank’s equity.

Results of the bank were ahead of market estimates, net profit of the bank showed a growth of 52percent to Rs.501crore during Q308 as against Rs329crore during the same period last year. For the first nine months of the current fiscal net profit of the bank showed a growth of 48percent to Rs.1159crore as compared to Rs 780crore during the same period in last year. Deposits were up by 22percent to Rs 136900crore and advances were up by 23percent to Rs.95518crore. The rise in net profit was mainly due to increase in other income and better cost management. Other income rose by 85percent to Rs.618crore in Q3FY08 from Rs333.7crore during the same period last year and operating expenses increased just by 7percent due to lower employee expenses. We initiate coverage on Bank of Baroda with “BUY” recommendation.

Key Developments

Improvement in Asset Quality

The bank has continued on the asset quality improvement. The Gross NPA during the quarter has declined to 2.11percent (Rs.2040.30crore) as compared to 3.02percent last year (Rs.2388.60crore) and Net NPA’s during the quarter have declined to 0.54percent as compared to 0.67percent last year.

Healthy Business growth

The total business has grown by 22.4percent to Rs.232418crore as compared to Rs.189874Crore during the last year. Advances have grown by 23percent to Rs.95518crore and deposits have grown by 22percent to Rs.136900Crore (yoy)

Financial Performance

Net profit of the bank showed a growth of 52 percent in Q3FY08

Bank of Baroda (BOB) reported a net profit of Rs501 crore, far ahead of market expectation led by buoyant treasury gains and controlled Operational expenditure. The asset quality continued on the improvement track with decline in the NPAs at gross as well as net level. Other income of the bank increased by 85percent (YoY) to Rs618crores, led by higher treasury profits.

Valuations

At the CMP of Rs 301.3 the bank is trading at a P/E of 7.84x TTM Dec 07 earnings and 1.31x TTM Dec 07 book value. We initiate coverage on Bank of Baroda with “BUY” recommendation.

For In-depth Bank of Baroda research report, company profile along with stock recommendations,  Bank of Baroda target price and for making informed investment decisions Click Here.

Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com

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March 28th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

Posted in Between The Lines