Archive for March, 2008
State of The Industries: KRC Ecoreview
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the Centre for Statistical Organization (CSO) for the month of January 2008 presents a very disturbing trend in the secondary sector of the economy. The index is showing a sharp moderation in the industrial sector growth in January this year vis-à-vis same month in the previous year. The General index grew by just 5.3 per cent showing a sharp dip from the height of 11.6 per cent a year ago. The more disturbing fact is a highly dismal performance of the Six Core Infrastructure Industries, which means that the trouble is more than skin-deep. But, at the same time, the cumulative ten-month figures depict an impressive close to nine per cent (8.7 per cent) growth in the general index. Then, do the current data show merely a monthly blip or some sharp changes in the fundamentals?
IIP movement in the current year
Economists disagree on the issue that whether the latest IIP figures are just an aberration or a trend? Though, the moderation in the economy looks obvious, the views differ on the degree of malaise the economy might be suffering with. Let us now look at the data set released and try to read between the lines. The growth figures look subdued, especially when looked in comparison with that of the month of January 2007.
Let us now look at the comparative rates of growth for both the year in the month of January. Read More.
Click here to read the complete State of The Industries exclusive report by KR Choksey.
Report Contents:
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Growth Rate Comparison: January ’08 vis-à-vis January ’07
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Cumulative Growth: April to January
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Performance of some critical Sectors
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Cumulative Auto sales Y-O-Y growth rate (%)
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What is in store
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And More Click Here
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Aegis Logistics Ltd KR Choksey Stock Recommendations
Aegis Logistics Ltd
Q3FY08 Update
Key Data
CMP Rs 202.55
Date March 31st 2008
Sector Gas Logistics
Face Value Rs.10
BSE Code 500003
52 Week H/L Rs 404 / 114
Market Cap Rs 332 Cr
Investment Rationale
Given the growing domestic consumption of petroleum and gas in the recent years, Aegis Logistics (ALL), the oil supply chain management company is well placed to grab theincreasing opportunities in this sector. ALL mainly concentrates on port handling of liquid petroleum/chemicals and gas storage and distribution. With the acquired Hindustan Aegis LPG, the company will expand its gas storage capacity at various sites which will be further used for auto gas retailing business. With the acquisition of Sealord Containers Ltd., Mumbai and the commencement of Kochi facility by March 2008, the liquid logistics capacity will increase by 75 percent to 288,000 KL. Moreover, ALL is also setting up a third terminal in Mumbai (56,000 KL) which is slated to commence operations by FY10. ALL has also acquired land in Haldia and Mangalore for setting up terminals in the near future and plans to extend its presence to Chennai and Kandla. The gas trading segment of ALL involves import and distribution of LPG from Saudi Arabia. Given the favourable cost economics of autogas over petrol and the increasing new entrants of LPG variants of cars in the market, the company is all set to scale up the autogas stations from the current 22 to 100 in the next two years. Presently, the company is focusing on Tier-II cities. ALL acquired Hindustan Aegis LPG (HAL) and issued 3.6 million new shares of Aegis to the shareholders of HAL (swap ratio – 1:3). HAL has two gas refrigerated tanks of 20,000 MT each of which one is currently operated by ALL. The strategy behind the acquisition is to increase the ALL’s gas capacity by 250,000 MT.
Key Developments
Aegis plans 70 LPG outlets in AP
Aegis Logistics is planning to set up 70 outlets of Auto Gas LPG in Andhra Pradesh. The company has chosen Keerthej Auto Gas Agency as its canvassing agent for the State. Aegis has a storage facility of 25,000 million tonnes of auto gas LPG at Moghul Trombay. The company has secured an import licence for petroleum products. The company is planning about 500 outlets across the country and of them 70 is planned in AP. The LPG would be sold at Government price.
Financial Performance
Revenue increased by 49 percent
Revenue increased by 49 percent to Rs 97 crore mainly driven by the expansion of liquid terminals at Sealord Containers and Kochi facility. Revenue from the liquid terminals rose by 66 percent to Rs 19.13 crore as against Rs 11.49 crore in the last quarter.
Valuations
At current market price of Rs 202.55, Aegis Logistics is quoting at a PER of 11x. On EV/Sales and on EV/ EBIDTA basis it is quoting at 1.26x and 9.26x of its TTM earnings respectively.
For In-depth Aegis Logistics Ltd research report by KR Choksey, company profile along with stock recommendations, Aegis Logistics Ltd target price and for making informed investment decisions Click Here.
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31st March, 2008 KRC Post Market Analysis
Market Commentary
|
|
No. of Scrips |
Value (Crs.) |
|
Advances |
656 |
4797 |
|
Declines |
554 |
9349 |
|
Unchanged |
18 |
70 |
|
Total |
1228 |
14126 |
Market Activity: Key share indices were down over 1% on weak cues from overseas markets.
At 10.10AM, Sensex was at 16103.25, down 268.04 points, or 1.6%, from Friday. Nifty was at 4879.15, down 62.85 points, or 1.3%.
All BSE sector indices fell, with sectors like bank and real estate among the worst hit as inflation rose to 6.68% for the week to Mar 15. Infosys Technologies and ICICI Bank fell 4% each. Unitech was down 2%. Cairn India shares dropped 5%. The stock was the worst hit on Nifty after it reported a standalone net loss of Rs 788.2 mn for year ended December. Cipla, up nearly 3%, and Tata Power and ONGC, up 1% each, were among rare gainers on Nifty.
In the mid trading session, Market extended losses midway through the session, shedding 4% on heavy selling in bank and information technology shares. Concern that the sharp rise in domestic inflation would dent growth and news the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India has asked companies to disclose all losses on derivatives contracts for the current financial year ending today dampened the sentiment here. At 1.15PM, Sensex was at 15733.18, down 645.15 points or 3.9% from Friday’s close. Nifty was at 4761.95, down 180.05 points or 3.7%. Frontline pharmaceutical shares gained on value buying. Cipla was up 2% and Ranbaxy Laboratories rose 1%. Hero Honda, up 3%, was the other major Nifty gainer. HDFC Bank shed 7.5% and ICICI Bank was down 7% on fears of interest rate hike, while Infosys Technologies and TCS shed 6% each as the rupee rose against the greenback.
Key shares ended down over 4% as bank, technology and real estate shares fell. Weak cues from overseas markets also weighed. Sensex closed at 15644.44, down 726.85 points, or 4.4%, from Friday. Nifty ended at 4734.50, down 207.50 points, or 4.2%. All BSE sector indices ended in the red as the possibility of a rate hike following sharp rise in inflation to 6.68% for the week to Mar 15 spooked markets, causing interest-rate sensitive sectors to fall the most. ICICI Bank and DLF ended down 8% and 7%, respectively. Tata Communications, down 9%, was the worst hit on Nifty. Cipla, up nearly 1%, was the sole Nifty gainer. Apart from Sensex and Nifty shares, CNX Mid-cap index ended down 2%, while S&P CNX 500 index dropped nearly 4%.
Sector Activity :
Tech stocks showed down trend: Infosys closed down Rs 1439.90 with volumes of Rs 361.40 crs, Satyam closed down at Rs 396.35 with volumes of Rs 114.27 crs, TCS closed down at Rs 810.45 with volumes of Rs 83.14 crs, and Educomp closed down at Rs 3823.95 with volumes of Rs 65.23 crs.
Pharma stocks witnessed mixed trend: Orchid Chemical closed up at Rs 161.40 with volumes of Rs 305.35 crs, Ranbaxy closed down at Rs 438.45 with volumes of Rs 43.28 crs, Cipla closed up at Rs 220 with volumes of Rs 35.72 crs, and Sun Pharma closed down at Rs 1229.35 with volumes of Rs 27.54 crs.Banking stocks ended in Red: In the Public Sector SBI Bank closed down at Rs 1600.25 with volumes Rs 167.13 crs & Bank Of India closed down at Rs 253.25 with volumes Rs 38.38 crs. In the Private sector ICICI Bank closed down at Rs 769.40 with volume of Rs 396.29 crs & HDFC Bank closed down at Rs 1331.25 with volumes of Rs 156.42 crs. Auto Stocks closed mixed: Tata Motors closed down at Rs 622.70 with volumes of Rs 73.02 crs & M&M closed up at Rs 697.05 with volumes of Rs 59.88 crs. While in the 2 wheeler segment stocks, Bajaj Holding closed up at Rs 691.50 with volumes of Rs 29.96 crs, Hero Honda closed down at Rs 694.55 with volumes of Rs 16.73 crs.
Cement Stocks showed negative trend: India Cement closed down at Rs 186.80 with volumes of Rs 36.08 crs, ACC closed down at Rs 826.15 with volumes of Rs 31.62 crs, Ambuja Cement closed down at Rs 121.05 with volumes of Rs 22.13 crs and Madras Cement closed down at Rs 3349.30 with volumes of Rs 1.75 crs.
Nifty ended at 4735 down by 208 points
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|
Cash |
Derivative |
||
|
Name |
Close |
% |
NSE Volumes (Rs. Crs) |
NSE F & O Volumes (Rs. Crs) April |
|
Reliance |
2265.80 |
-3.68 |
708.30 |
1326.02 |
|
Rel Capital |
1228.80 |
-12.12 |
637.46 |
1029.54 |
|
CAIRN |
224.10 |
-2.14 |
416.58 |
479.25 |
|
ICICI Bank |
769.40 |
-7.91 |
396.28 |
365.29 |
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INFOSYSTCH |
1439.90 |
-5.34 |
361.40 |
361.40 |
Click here for A critical daily report from the Dealing Desk of the KRC Broking Division that provides our Investor Client with post-market analysis of the day with an action guide charted for the next day of trading. Good Evening KRC presents the technical viewpoint on the market and stocks and has been indexed into the following segments:
* Earning Idea: Technical calls for short term.
* Market Actions: News specific calls with expected action.
* F & O trading call: Derivative strategy for the day.
* Index Trend: Expected movement of the Sensex with range guidance.
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Power Equipment Industry - Weekender - KRC Update
Power Equipment Industry
Current Scenario
A growing economy needs power, both for domestic and industrial use. India is highly energy deficient. The power consumed by an average US citizen per day is equal to that consumed by an Indian in more than 20 days. This, coupled with the fact that the affluent Indian middle class is spending a lot on domestic appliances, and a growing manufacturing industry needs more power to meet its energy needs, provides tremendous growth potential for companies in the power sector.
Even China has a per capita electricity usage rate of 1,684 Kwh — almost thrice that of India. This means that if Indians aspire to achieve the same standard of living as that of an average Chinese, power generation in India should triple from its current level. Assuming an average capital cost of Rs 4 crore to generate one mw of power, the estimated investment works out to over ~$250 bn over the next few years. Around 30% of this will go to EPC contractors (such as L&T, HCC and IVRCL). The bulk of the balance $165 billion will be spent on buying equipment from suppliers (such as Bhel, Siemens and Alstom). This amount is over10 times the current turnover of the industry. Read More
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12.30 p.m Market tumbles; breadth positive - KRC
The key benchmark indices extended losses in early afternoon trade on fresh selling in index pivotals. Negative cues from global markets dampened sentiment. The sentiment was also hit by reports that Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) has asked companies to disclose losses on a mark-to-market basis incurred due to derivatives trades from the current financial year onwards (year ending March 2008), as a precursor to making a new accounting standard — the AS-30 — mandatory from 1 April 2011. This may hit Q4 March 2008 and FY 2008 (year ending March 2008) bottom line of Indian firms.
Asian markets which opened before Indian market, were in red. US stocks dropped on Friday, 28 March 2008, as a profit warning from US department store chain J.C. Penney raised concerns about slowing consumer spending while persistent worries about credit-related problems throttled financial stocks. A prominent analyst warned that earnings will not support current dividend payouts in 2008 at Citigroup, Wachovia Corp and other US banks.
The BSE Sensex dipped below 16,000 mark. 28 stocks from the 30-member Sensex pack declined. IT pivotals extended early fall on fresh selling pressure. Despite the sharp fall, the market breadth was positive.
At 12:27 IST, the 30-share BSE Sensex was down 568.74 points or 3.47% at 15,800.23. It opened with a downward gap of 144.63 points at 16,226.66. Sensex slipped to a low of 15,778.71 in early afternoon trade. At the day’s low, the Sensex lost 592.58 points.
The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 158.05 points or 3.20% at 4,783.95.
The ICAI norm requires companies to provide for all losses, including those that may occur due to trading in derivatives. Indian companies are sitting on huge losses on account of the forex derivative transactions they undertook during the year. A steep decline in the value of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc has hit Indian corporates which have used these two currencies (Yen and Franc) extensively to swap their rupee denominated debt.
There are many companies, which are not disclosing these losses, as it is not mandatory to show these numbers in the balance sheets. But with the new accounting norms they now have some compulsions. Companies, which thought that they could escape declaring the losses, will now have to come forward and show their numbers, which could hit their balance sheet, which, in turn, may impact their market capitalisation.
Earlier, robust corporate advance tax payments in Q4 March 2008 indicated that corporate profit growth will be strong in the quarter. Advance tax figures showed banks, hospitality and software firms were doing better than sectors like automobiles and cement.
The market breadth was positive: On BSE 1,485 shares advanced as compared to 945 that declined. 41 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.37% to 6,498.85 while the BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.54% to 7,944.97 The total turnover amounted to Rs 2382 crore on BSE by 12:30 IST as compared to Rs 1689 crore by 11:30 IST.
IT pivotals were the worst hit in today’s slump on worries that slowdown in US may impact their revebues. India’s second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies slumped 6.74% to Rs 1423.40 on 1.54 lakh shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.
Other IT pivotals, Satyam Computers (down 4.10% to Rs 391.75), Wipro (down 3.10% to Rs 440), and TCS (down 6.44% to Rs 814.05), also declined IT pivotals derive majority of their revenue from exports to US markers.
India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries lost 1.92% to Rs 2302.50 on 3.77 lakh shares. The stock moved in a range of Rs 2278 and Rs 2340 so far during the day.
Banking shares declined. ICICI Bank (down 5.41% to Rs 790), HDFC Bank (down 6.03% to Rs 1316.60), and State Bank of India (down 3.10% to Rs 1628.10), declined on selling pressure.
Grasim (down 4.81% to Rs 2575) and Larsen & Toubro (down 3.88% to Rs 3025) were the other losers from Sensex pack.
Cipla, the country’s third largest pharma company in terms of sales, gained 1.77% to Rs 221.40 on 2.19 lakh shares. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack. India’s largest cigarette manufacturer in terms of sales, ITC rose 1.16% to Rs 208.70
Reliance Capital was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 94.67 crore followed by Reliance Industries (Rs 88.76 crore), Mundra Port & Special Economic Zone (Rs 76.48 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 70.65 crore), and NTPC (Rs 67.47 crore), in that order.
Among the side counters, Axon Infotech (up 17.96% to Rs 41.05), Ceat (up 11.98% to Rs 114), Indowind Energy (up 20% to Rs 68.20), and Sulzer India (up 20% to Rs 687), surged IOL Broadband (down 10% to Rs 92.60), Godrej Industries (down 9.45% to Rs 260), and Aurionpro Labs (down 7.23% to Rs 301.05), slipped.
Four Soft jumped 5% to Rs 27.10 while Take Solutions declined 0.59% to Rs 763. The board of directors of both these companies will consider merger proposal.
Suven Life Sciences gained 1.51% to Rs 33.55 after the company said it has secured patent rights in Mexico and Korea for two of its new chemical entities for the treatment of disorders associated with neurodegenerative diseases.
City Union Bank declined 0.69% to Rs 28.80 after bank said it would issue 80 million shares by way of qualified institutional placement. The bank made this announcement after market hours on Friday, 28 March 2008.
The Cabinet Committee on prices will hold a meeting today, 31 March 2008, to take stock of high inflation that surged to over 13-month high of 6.68% in mid-March 2008. Inflation started its upward climb some weeks back, particularly because prices had risen the most in the case of cereals, vegetables, milk and edible oils. Fiscal measures such as reduction in import duties on edible oils have not yet yielded results in taming the inflationary pressures.
Asian markets were trading lower today, 31 March 2008. Hang Seng (down 1.91% at 22,840.13), Japan’s Nikkei (down 2.30% at 12,525.54), Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted (down 0.59% at 8,572.59), Singapore’s Straits Times (down 0.35% at 3,021.72), Shanghai Composite (down 2.62% to 3,486.40), and edged lower. However South Korea’s Seoul Composite rose 0.13% to 1,703.99
Back home, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 355.73 points or 2.22% at 16,371.29 on Friday, 28 March 2008. The broader CNX S&P Nifty was up 111.75 points or 2.31% at 4942 on that day.
The Sensex surged 1,376.46 points or 9.18% to 16,371.29 in the week ended Friday, 28 March 2008 on buying by foreign institutional investors. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 368.05 points or 8.04% to 4,942 in the week.
As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased sold worth Rs 401.95 crore on Friday, 28 March 2008. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 729.50 crore on that day.
FIIs were net sellers of Rs 132.21 crore in the futures & options segment on Friday, 28 March 2008. They were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 366.53 crore and bought index options worth Rs 406.38 crore. They were net sellers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 184.53 crore and bought stock options worth Rs 12.47 crore
Stocks In News
Era Infra Engineering survives market fall on securing new contract
Era Infra Engineering was flat at Rs 596.95 at 12:38 IST on BSE bucking the weak market trend after the company secured a contract worth Rs 20 crore for supply of ready mix concrete in New Delhi.
Tyre stocks in top gear on plans to hike prices
Five tyre stocks rose between 3.21% to 11% on reports tyre manufacturers are gearing up to increase prices following a surge in input costs.
Four Soft hardens on possible merger with Take Solutions
Four Soft hit 5% upper circuit at Rs 27.10 at 12:04 IST on BSE after Four Soft and Take Solutions said the boards of the two companies will consider merger proposal.
Suven Life Sciences gains on patent rights
Suven Life Sciences gained 1.66% to Rs 33.60 at 11:48 IST on BSE after the company said it has secured patent rights in Mexico and Korea for two of its new chemical entities for the treatment of disorders associated with neurodegenerative diseases.
Chowgule Steamships sets sail on unit’s expansion plan
Chowgule Steamships hit 5% upper circuit at Rs 38.90 on BSE after Chowgule Ports & Infrastructure, a company co-promoted by Chowgule Steamships, signed an agreement with Maharashtra Maritime Board (MMB) for development of a minor port at Jaigad.
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Steel Sector Update - Angel Broking
Globally, steel prices have been on an upward trajectory due to input cost pressure. However to curb inflation, the government has been trying to rein in the soaring steel prices by adopting several measures like imposition of export tax. Clearly, if the government does impose an export tax of 10% on finished steel, profitability of steel players will be negatively impacted, especially that of JSW Steel, which has a higher export revenues share in total revenues. In case of JSW Steel, 30% of its revenues can be attributed to exports, while export revenues of SAIL and Tata Steel account for 3.5% and 10% of their total revenues, respectively. We maintain our Neutral view on both SAIL and Tata Steel and Buy on JSW Steel. Read More
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11.30 a.m. Weakness persists - KRC
Weakness persists
The key benchmark indices were weak in mid-morning trade on sustained selling pressure. Negative cues from global markets dampened sentiment in opening trade. Asian markets which opened before Indian market, were in red. US stocks dropped on Friday, 28 March 2008, as a profit warning from US department store chain J.C. Penney raised concerns about slowing consumer spending while persistent worries about credit-related problems throttled financial stocks. A prominent analyst warned that earnings will not support current dividend payouts in 2008 at Citigroup, Wachovia Corp and other US banks.
The BSE Sensex dipped below 16,000 mark in early trade in choppy trade. 27 stocks from the 30-member Sensex pack declined. IT pivotals extended early fall on fresh selling pressure. The market breadth was positive on BSE.
At 11:27 IST, the 30-share BSE Sensex was down 388.90 points or 2.38% at 15,982.39. It opened with a downward gap of 144.63 points at 16,226.66 and slipped further to touch low of 15,877.57 in mid-morning trade. At the day’s low, the Sensex lost 493.72 points.
The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 105.75 points or 2.25% at 4,846.25.
The Cabinet Committee on prices will hold a meeting today, 31 March 2008, to take stock of high inflation that surged to over 13-month high of 6.68% in mid-March 2008. Inflation started its upward climb some weeks back, particularly because prices had risen the most in the case of cereals, vegetables, milk and edible oils. Fiscal measures such as reduction in import duties on edible oils have not yet yielded results in taming the inflationary pressures.
The market breadth was positive: On BSE 1,355 shares advanced as compared to 937 that declined. 51 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.62% to 6,482.03 while the BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.18% to 7,915.92 The total turnover amounted to Rs 1689 crore on BSE by 11:30 IST as compared to Rs 659 crore by 10:30 IST.
IT pivotals extended early fall on fresh selling pressure. India’s second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies slumped 6.32% to Rs 1429.85 on 1.16 lakh shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.
Other IT pivotals, Satyam Computers (down 4.10% to Rs 391.75), Wipro (down 2.30% to Rs 443.60), and TCS (down 3.47% to Rs 839.95), also declined
India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries lost 1.43% to Rs 2314 on 2.95 lakh shares. The stock moved in a range of Rs 2278 and Rs 2340 so far during the day.
ICICI Bank (down 4.38% to Rs 798.60), HDFC Bank (down 4.73% to Rs 1334), and Grasim (down 4.82% to Rs 3574.85), were the other losers from Sensex pack.
Cipla, the country’s third largest pharma company in terms of sales, gained 1.77% to Rs 221.40 on 1.78 lakh shares. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack.
ITC (up 0.87% to Rs 208.10), and Hindalco Industries (up 0.11% to Rs 175.65), were the other gainers from Sensex pack.
Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 70.20 crore followed by Mundra Port & Special Economic Zone (Rs 67.18 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 62.06 crore), NTPC (Rs 58.90), and Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (Rs 57.56 crore), in that order Among the side counters, Axon Infotech (up 17.96% to Rs 41.05), Indowind Energy (up 20% to Rs 68.20), and Sulzer India (up 20% to Rs 687), surged IOL Broadband (down 10% to Rs 92.60), Godrej Industries (down 9.45% to Rs 260), and Setco Automotive (down 9.42% to Rs 165), slipped.
Asian markets were trading lower today, 31 March 2008. Hang Seng (down 1.91% at 22,840.13), Japan’s Nikkei (down 2.50% at 12,500.37), Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted (down 0.59% at 8,572.59), Singapore’s Straits Times (down 0.50% at 3,016.65), Shanghai Composite (down 2.93% to 3,475.50), and South Korea’s Seoul Composite (down 0.28% to 1,697.03) edged lower.
Stocks In News
New order does not benefit L&T
Larsen & Toubro declined 3.98% to Rs 3022 at 11:11 IST on BSE even as the company said on Monday, 31 March 2008 its engineering and construction division has received an order worth Rs 576 crore from Hindustan Petroleum Corporation.
Investors withdraw from City Union Bank
City Union Bank declined 1.03% to Rs 28.70 at 11:14 IST on BSE after bank said it would issue 80 million shares by way of qualified institutional placement
Spanco Telesystems rings on new orders
Spanco Telesystems & Solutions surged 5.07% to Rs 172.05 at 10:33 IST on BSE after the company said on Monday, 31 March 2008, it won orders worth Rs 166 crore from various parties
Amtek Auto skids on currency market losses
Amtek Auto declined 2.3% to Rs 254.40 at 10:53 IST on BSE after company said it may suffer losses up to $18 million in the next two years due to volatility in the global currency market.
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10.30 a.m. Market opens on a weak note - KRC
Market opens on a weak note
Local market opened lower mirroring negative global cues. Asian markets were trading lower today, 31 March 2008 while US markets closed lower on Friday, 28 March 2008. The BSE Sensex dipped below 16,000 mark only to regain it in choppy trade. Market breadth was positive on BSE. 27 stocks from the 30-member Sensex pack declined. IT pivotals declined on selling pressure.
At 10:26 IST, the 30-share BSE Sensex was down 365.15 points or 2.20% at 16,011.38. It opened with a downward gap of 144.63 points at 16,226.66 and slipped further to touch low of 15,987.69 in early trade. At the day’s low, the Sensex lost 383.60 points.
The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 100.05 points or 2.02% at 4,841.95.
The market breadth was positive: On BSE 1,066 shares advanced as compared to 727 that declined. 30 shares remained unchanged.
The total turnover amounted to Rs 659 crore on BSE by 10:30 IST.
IT pivotals declined on selling pressure. India’s second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies slumped 5.10% to Rs 1449 on 32147 shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.
Other IT pivotals, Satyam Computers (down 2.56% to Rs 398), Wipro (down 4.30% to Rs 434.50), and TCS (down 1.20% to Rs 857), also declined
India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries lost 2.66% to Rs 2288.70 on 1.23 lakh shares. The stock moved in a range of Rs 2278 and Rs 2340 so far during the day.
ICICI Bank (down 3.86% to Rs 803), HDFC Bank (down 3.14% to Rs 1357.10), and DLF (down 2.40% to Rs 679), were the other losers from Sensex pack.
Cipla, the country’s third largest pharma company in terms of sales, gained 1.88% to Rs 221.65 on 1.05 lakh shares. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack.
ITC (up 1.43% to Rs 209.25), and Hindalco Industries (up 0.03% to Rs 175.50), were the other gainers from Sensex pack.
Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 0.46% to Rs 466.50), and Cipla (up 0.42% to Rs 205), were the other gainers from Sensex pack.
Among the side counters, Axon Infotech (up 18.39% to Rs 41.20), Indowind Energy (up 17.68% to Rs 66.90), and Sulzer India (up 17.72% to Rs 674), surged
Marketmen are keenly awaiting Q4 and full year March 2008 results from Indian corporates. Robust corporate advance tax payments in Q4 March 2008 indicate that corporate profit growth will be strong in the quarter. Advance tax figures showed banks, hospitality and software firms are doing better than sectors like automobiles and cement.
The sharp rise in inflation has been a cause of concern, which has now risen above the Reserve Bank of India’s caution limit of 5%. India’s wholesale price index surged to 13-month to 6.68% in the 12 months to 15 March 2008, surging from the previous week’s rise of 5.92%, government data showed on Friday, 28 March 2008.
Asian markets were trading lower today, 31 March 2008. Hang Seng (down 1.73% at 22,882.77), Japan’s Nikkei (down 2.25% at 12,531.88), Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted (down 0.86% at 8,549.02) Singapore’s Straits Times (down 0.50% at 3,016.65), Shanghai Composite (down 2.30% to 3,497.65), and South Korea’s Seoul Composite (down 0.79% to 1,688.37) edged lower.
US markets closed lower on Friday, 28 March 2008 after a profit warning from J.C. Penney renewed fears about slower consumer spending. The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 86.06 points, or 0.70%, to 12,216.40. The S&P 500 index was down 10.54 points, or 0.80%, to 1,315.22, and the Nasdaq Composite index declined 19.65 points, or 0.86%, to 2,261.18.
The Sensex surged 1,376.46 points or 9.18% to 16,371.29 in the week ended Friday, 28 March 2008 on buying by foreign institutional investors and local funds. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 368.05 points or 8.04% to 4,942 in the week.
As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased sold worth Rs 401.95 crore on Friday, 28 March 2008. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 729.50 crore on that day.
FIIs were net sellers of Rs 132.21 crore in the futures & options segment on Friday, 28 March 2008. They were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 366.53 crore and bought index options worth Rs 406.38 crore. They were net sellers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 184.53 crore and bought stock options worth Rs 12.47 crore.
Stocks In News
IRB Infrastructure speeds up on new order win
IRB Infrastructure Developers gained 1.89% to Rs 180.80 at 10:14 IST on BSE after the company said it had won a bid from Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation for the integrated road development program in the city of Kolhapur, Maharashtra.
Amtek Auto may see action
Amtek Auto said on Friday, 28 March 2008, it expects a potential loss of up to $18 million over the next two years due to volatility in global currency prices. The company said the promoters have undertaken to bring the matching amount to meet the obligation through 10-year debentures or preference shares.
Tata Power may sell stakes in holding companies and assets to help fund its $6 billion capacity expansion plans, the company said in a presentation that was published on Friday. Tata Power plans to raise its power generation capacity by more than five times to nearly 13,000 megawatts by 2013, the company said in an analyst presentation sent to the stock exchange.
Binani Cement builds on overseas acquisition
Binani Cement rose 0.49% to Rs 60.95 at 9:56 IST on BSE after the company said on Friday, 28 March 2008, its wholly owned subsidiary Mukundan Holdings has acquired 49% stake in a company in Dubai and 30% stake in Krishna Holdings, Singapore.
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Bank of Baroda - KR Choksey Stock Recommendations
Bank of Baroda
Initiating Coverage
Key Data
CMP Rs 301.3
Date March 28th 2008
Sector Banking
Face Value Rs.10
BSE Code 531234
52 Week H/L Rs 501/193
Market Cap Rs 11013.72 Cr
Investment Rationale
Bank of Baroda, incorporated in 1908, is the fourth largest state-owned bank in India. It has a large network of over 2,800 branches, 71 overseas offices and 1,078 ATMs. 60percent of its branches are located in the rural and semi-urban regions of India. The company provides personal banking services including deposits, retail loans, credit cards, debit card, lockers and other services and also provides business banking services merchant banking services The government owns 53.8percent of the bank’s equity.
Results of the bank were ahead of market estimates, net profit of the bank showed a growth of 52percent to Rs.501crore during Q308 as against Rs329crore during the same period last year. For the first nine months of the current fiscal net profit of the bank showed a growth of 48percent to Rs.1159crore as compared to Rs 780crore during the same period in last year. Deposits were up by 22percent to Rs 136900crore and advances were up by 23percent to Rs.95518crore. The rise in net profit was mainly due to increase in other income and better cost management. Other income rose by 85percent to Rs.618crore in Q3FY08 from Rs333.7crore during the same period last year and operating expenses increased just by 7percent due to lower employee expenses. We initiate coverage on Bank of Baroda with “BUY” recommendation.
Key Developments
Improvement in Asset Quality
The bank has continued on the asset quality improvement. The Gross NPA during the quarter has declined to 2.11percent (Rs.2040.30crore) as compared to 3.02percent last year (Rs.2388.60crore) and Net NPA’s during the quarter have declined to 0.54percent as compared to 0.67percent last year.
Healthy Business growth
The total business has grown by 22.4percent to Rs.232418crore as compared to Rs.189874Crore during the last year. Advances have grown by 23percent to Rs.95518crore and deposits have grown by 22percent to Rs.136900Crore (yoy)
Financial Performance
Net profit of the bank showed a growth of 52 percent in Q3FY08
Bank of Baroda (BOB) reported a net profit of Rs501 crore, far ahead of market expectation led by buoyant treasury gains and controlled Operational expenditure. The asset quality continued on the improvement track with decline in the NPAs at gross as well as net level. Other income of the bank increased by 85percent (YoY) to Rs618crores, led by higher treasury profits.
Valuations
At the CMP of Rs 301.3 the bank is trading at a P/E of 7.84x TTM Dec 07 earnings and 1.31x TTM Dec 07 book value. We initiate coverage on Bank of Baroda with “BUY” recommendation.
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Kisan Ratilal Choksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd.
1102, Stock Exchange Tower, Dalal Street, Mumbai 400 001
Phone: 91-22-56338050 / 66965555. Fax: 5633 8060
Members: BSE & NSE
www.krchoksey.com
Email: customercare@krchoksey.com / eservices@krchoksey.com
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